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China has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.